証拠タイプの競合：介入データはいつ言語モデルに因果方向を教えられるのか？
Evidence-Type Competition: When Can Interventional Data Teach Language Models Causal Direction?
介入データが因果推論に有効とされる仮説を、合成環境で観測相関と因果効果が逆符号になるシンプソンのパラドックス状況で検証し、介入サンプルを増やしても因果方向の学習が改善せず、文脈中の証拠タイプが重要であることを示した。
詳しい要約
1. どんなもの？
2. 先行研究と比べてどこがすごい？
3. 技術・手法の肝は？
4. どうやって有効だと検証した？
5. 議論はある？
6. 次に読むべき論文は？
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著者: Xining Xun
分類: cs.CL, cs.LG
原文アブストラクト
Interventional data is widely regarded as the gold standard for teaching models causal reasoning. We test this assumption in a fully controlled synthetic environment pitting observational correlation against causal effect, and find it fails instructively. In Simpson's-paradox worlds, where the two have systematically opposite signs, increasing the fraction of interventional samples in pretraining does not improve causal direction: the magnitude of the model's do()-response grows monotonically, yet its sign is copied from the observational context. What governs whether interventional evidence is used is not the training mixture but the evidence type present in the context at inference time. Under an identical training recipe, a purely observational context induces systematic sign reversal in 29/50 worlds, a mixed context in 19/50, while aligned interventional probes alone yield 41/50 correct. Erasing observational evidence from the context immediately releases the suppressed causal interpolation ability (ratio_true = +0.56); a four-state content manipulation shows the switch is content-mediated and graded. The suppression is stable across training seeds (11/11 strong reversals persist on a matched-protocol second seed) and robust as a rate at 0.93B parameters (31.8% vs. 6% reversals in the matched probe-only arm), even as absolute gains shrink four-fold. An external audit on CLadder exposes a learned positive-effect prior with a two-layer structure: sign-randomized retraining removes it in-distribution but not out-of-distribution. We summarize: the capability lives in the weights; the switch lives in the context, and activation patching localizes the switch to the middle layers' observational rows. We further quantify the sampling noise floor of probe-based causal evaluation and an evidence-averaging protocol that cuts sign errors from 26% to 9%.
